Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan released Indian pilot Wing Commander Abhinandan as a “peace gesture” to India. Unfortunately there is no de-escalation in tensions between India and Pakistan. Two Pakistan Army soldiers and some Innocent people lost their lives on line of control one day after the release of Abhinandan. Many countries are trying for mediation between the two neighbors including US, Saudi Arabia and UAE. Now Russia also offered its services as a mediator. Pakistan accepted Russian offer of mediation but India is silent. Some defence experts expressed apprehensions that tensions between two nuclear powers may spark third world war in South Asia over Kashmir.According to American expert George Friedman third world war may start around 2050 not between India and Pakistan. He claimed many years ago that third world war may start between US, Poland, India and China on one side and Turkey, Japan, Germany and France on the other side. What does it mean? If China will be on US side in 2050 then Pakistan will stand by China. In that case both India and Pakistan will be on the same side. This scenario is difficult to believe today but this is what George Friedman wrote in his famous book “The Next 100 Years” in 2009.Famous American geopolitical forecaster and strategist George Friedman wrote another book in 2011 titled “The Next Decade”. He expressed fear that Jihadist forces in Pakistan and Afghanistan will probably reemerge but there is a slight chance that Pakistani military will suppress the terrorists with the US support. And finally he predicted that “Afghan war will be resolved much as Vietnam was, through a negotiated peace agreement that allows the insurgent forces- in this case the Taliban- to take control. He also said that “The Pakistani State will survive. Which will balance India, thus allowing United States to focus on other balance points within the regions.”Prediction of George Friedman about Afghanistan is coming true in 2019. The US and Afghan Taliban started negotiations with each other in January this year and Pakistan is playing the role of a facilitator in Afghan peace process. Recently a British member of the parliament Lord Qurban Hussain told me in London that road to peace in Afghanistan goes through Kashmir. I asked how? Lord Qurban Hussain said that India and Pakistan are fighting a proxy war in Afghanistan. Pakistan is supporting the Taliban and India is supporting President Ashraf Ghani. This proxy war in Afghanistan may not end until unless there is a solution of Kashmir dispute. Tension between India and Pakistan is now more than a proxy war. It is becoming a direct conflict between two nuclear powers. India attacked Jabba Mountains near Balakot in KPK province of Pakistan on February 26 and Pakistan shot down two Indian fighter planes near Bhimber close to the Line of Control within 48 hours. India claimed its air force targeted a training camp of Jaish-e-Muhammad in Jabba and hundreds of terrorists were killed there. I visited the bombing site in Jabba myself very next morning of the attack. I didn’t find any destroyed structure or dead bodies in Jabba. There was only one injured person in that area. His name was Nooran Shah. The 62-year-old, Nooran Shah, showed me a dead crow and said “this is the only casualty”. There was no training camp in that area. Yes, there was a religious school (madrassah) one kilometer away from the bombing site but all the students in that madrassah were children less than 14-year-old. This madrassah was intact. Not a single injured person was taken to nearby hospitals. Now many Indian newspapers are saying the same. India failed to prove that IAF targeted a terror training camp.Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan tried to contact his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi immediately after the capture of Indian pilot in Bhimber but Modi refused to take his call. He never made any demand for the release of Wing Commander Abhinandan but Pakistan released him for reducing the tension.There is a general impression in Pakistan that peace is not in the interest of Modi right now because he is heading for general elections. In my humble opinion Modi should not avoid Imran Khan. He should utilise this opportunity to start talks on terrorism. Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi received a dossier from Indian side about JeM on February 28. If India is not interested in talks why did Delhi send a dossier to Islamabad? If Indian and Pakistani leadership is in contact with each other through American and Saudi officials why not talk directly? If there will be no talks then Imran Khan made it clear that “Pakistan is ready to respond any aggression from India”.Some Western diplomats told me that if India starts dialogue with Pakistan on terrorism then Pakistan will try to force India to talk on Kashmir and it will not be acceptable to India. It is a general impression that there is no other option than dialogue but a formal dialogue may start after Indian election. What will happen if a formal war between India and Pakistan starts before election?Modi must realize that war may benefit some him for the time being but ultimately this war will destroy peace in the whole region. Learn lesson for the failures of super power America in Afghanistan. America and its allies used their military might against Taliban for 17 years. They used UN to impose sanctions on Taliban but they failed to defeat Taliban in Afghanistan. Now Americans are talking to Taliban. There is a difference between Taliban and Pakistan. Taliban are not nuclear power. Pakistan is a nuclear power. If two nuclear powers will start fighting then a small war will produce bigger wars. These wars will produce many “children of war”. Victims of war are often expected to be vengeful of their brutalisation to promote new cycle of violence. The emotional reactions of people affected by war are harmful to themselves and dangerous to others. I have seen in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and Palestine, Chechnya and in Pakistani tribal areas that children of war become suicide bombers. Traumatisation makes them revengeful. They become Adil Ahmad Dar who targeted CRPF in Pulwama. These children of war become asset of outfits like JeM. War hysteria will only help likes of JeM. This outfit was long ago banned in Pakistan. If it still exists anywhere in Pakistan then Modi must confront Imran Khan directly. If he goes for confrontation he will help JeM. War will be the victory of JeM. Why Modi playing in hands of JeM?Unfortunately, many journalists and TV anchors in India are also behaving like “children of war”. They are promoting jingoism. Modi should not become hostage of these “children of war”. If there will be war then there will be more extremism, more terrorism, more death and more destruction. More Adil Ahmad Dars. There will be no winner. All of us will lose.Look at the Afghan Taliban and the US! They are fighting in Afghanistan but talking to each other in Qatar. Why can India and Pakistan not talk? Yes, I know we need to reduce tensions before talks. Politicians from both sides cannot play a positive role in reducing tension.Use cricketers, singers, actors and educationists to improve relations. Right now it is difficult because election in India is very close, but don’t waste time. Things may become more complicated after the election. At least declare a ceasefire across the LoC and give some relief to the Kashmiris on both sides. If there will be no de-escalation in coming few days, then I fear George Friedman may prove wrong at least about his prediction on third world war. Third world war may not start around 2050.It may start soon. We must say a big no to war. The writer works for Geo Television and tweets @HamidMirPAK
03-03-2019, 04:09 PM
How PM Modi is helping JeM
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