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08-11-2016, 04:31 AM
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Brexiteers need all the help they can get!
By Ben Wright
Moderate Brexiteers need Remainers on side to get the best deal when Britain leaves the EU Let us all recite Saint Augustine of Hippo’s prayer for the angry Remainer: Lord, grant us the grace to move on from the European Union referendum result and the equanimity to start thinking positively. But **t yet. Brexiteers tell us that they won (**ted), there won’t be a second referendum (agreed), and Remainers should shut up if they have **thing positive to say (**, I’m going to have to stop you there). Sentiment and confidence have an important, if nebulous, role to play in the eco**my. But the idea that bitter Remoaners can “talk down the eco**my”, even if that’s what they wanted to do, is as absurd as it is pervasive. Try flipping the proposition around and you’ll see why: if we could talk ourselves into a recession then all we’d have to do to get out again is link arms and wish upon a star. Are we even heading for a recession? Both sides of the referendum debate are as guilty as each other of jumping on any snippet of information that backs up their beliefs. The truth is that the data which have emerged in the short time since the vote are so mixed that, at this stage, they’re only really useful as a massive case study in confirmation bias. Markit’s PMI figures for business activity in July were pretty horrid, but the reports from the Bank of England’s agencies in the regions were a lot more cheery; the labour market looked like it was very iffy last month, but consumer spending appears to have held up well; the pound has plummeted, but that could have some beneficial side effects. (The equity and bond markets are frankly so detached from fundamental reality at this point that they can safely be ig**red in any sensible assessment of the eco**my.) It’s going to take a lot longer for clear trends to emerge. And, of course, all of those indicators are reacting to a decision, **t yet an act. That is what is causing any “uncertainty” that there might be in the eco**my – we k**w the result of the referendum but **t what we voted for or when we are going to get it. The real act of treachery would be for Remainers to excuse themselves from the debate about what “Brexit means Brexit” really means. There’s ** shortage of confusion about this definition. Last month, Conservative MP Bernard Jenkin wrote in the Financial Times that there was a false belief the UK must maintain access to the EU single market. In a Twitter exchange discussing the piece Mr Jenkin told me “lots of countries exploit their ‘access’ to the EU market – even those without a trade agreement!”. This is true – for goods. It is **t true for services. The Swiss sell their flashy watches all over Europe; their banks need to have branches in London in order to operate in the EU. Regardless of whether Mr Jenkin is unaware of the differences in how the EU treats goods and services or is merely glossing over the distinction, I think Remainers are perfectly entitled to point out the inconsistency. Later in his article, Jenkins claimed the “passporting” system that allows banks and other financial institutions to sell their services across Europe was “a convenience but **t a necessity”. He added that the City’s new-won freedom from damaging EU regulations is “far more important to our long-term global position than passporting”. The following day, Anthony Browne, the chief executive of British Bankers’ Association, **t a lobby group that is k**wn for its love of financial regulation, wrote in these pages: “The only way to guarantee that UK-based banks (both British and foreign) can still provide the financing the European eco**my needs is for the UK to retain full access to the single market. “If we start stripping away European financial services legislation, we are less likely to get single market access.” **w it’s possible that, after years of being bashed by Brussels, the banking industry is suffering from some form of Stockholm syndrome. Either that or the City has a better, and rather different, understanding of its own best interests than the ho**urable member for Harwich and **rth Es***. أكثر... ??????? ??????: Brexiteers need all the help they can get! || ??????: ahlam1399 || ??????: اسم منتداك
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