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12-20-2013, 10:35 PM
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On the juxtaposition of positve eco**mic growth and market vulnerability
On the juxtaposition of positve eco**mic growth and market vulnerability
Today’s commentary It was interesting to see the US markets follow through yesterday to the upside after a monster rally in shares when the Fed tapered large scale asset purchases on Wednesday. But rather than seeing strength in this, I see vulnerability because the move to the upside is directly at odds with the news flow and the fundamentals. My macro view is positive. I am concerned about the inventory building and the recent uptick in jobless claims. I believe these data points bear watching. But, on the whole I am positive on the real eco**my and believe that the inventory/jobs situation can be overcome. That said, this recovery is long, 52 months long to be precise. Rather than believing we are going from strength to strength and a long cyclical rebound lies ahead, we should understand that we are well into the business cycle and the peak in eco**mic growth is probably behind us. **ne of this speaks to recession, more to moderate growth, less vulnerable to exoge**us shocks. In the links today, I **ted however that the leading eco**mic indicators were pointing to accelerating growth rather than moderate or moderating growth. So I think we are at a delicate moment in view of the fact that the Fed has just taken away the QE prop because of its expectation for accelerating growth. If this growth doesn’t come to pass, the markets will react negatively. What are some of the problems I see in the data flow then? First, there is China. [Content protected for Gold members only] More About: cars, China, Commentary, credit, equities, Housing, inventories, investing, multiple expansion, United States, weekly The most in-depth research and analysis is on Credit Writedowns Pro. On the juxtaposition of positve eco**mic growth and market vulnerability originally appeared on Credit Writedowns Links: RSS - Daily - Weekly - Twitter - Facebook - Contact Credit Writedowns Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1 Related posts:
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