Updated: Mon, 22 Dec 2025 12:23 (IST) Political activities are intense in Bihar regarding Rajya Sabha elections. Preparations are underway to send Nitin Nabin to Delhi, while Kushwaha’s departure is considered almost certain. Read more: Temperature of politics rises over Radha Krishna, Patna seats. Even though the Rajya Sabha elections are still three months away in Bihar, the political chessboard has already been laid. The round of multiplication, addition, subtraction and possibilities intensified in both the ruling and opposition camps. On April 9, 2026, five Rajya Sabha seats from Bihar are falling vacant and the temperature of politics is rising regarding these seats. This election is not only to elect MPs but also a test of leadership, alliance and deciding the future direction. Remove advertisement Just read the news Five seats, many contenders are included in the five leaders whose term ends in April 2026. Political mathematics will be decided anew on these seats. The special thing is that in the current situation, the ruling NDA is in a completely strong position, while the situation seems to be getting more and more difficult for the opposition Grand Alliance. Prem Chand Gupta (RJD) AD Singh (RJD) Harivansh Narayan Singh (JDU) Ramnath Thakur (JDU) Upendra Kushwaha (RLM) Victory Formula: Magic Number of 41 To win a seat in Rajya Sabha this time, the support of at least 41 MLAs will be needed. This number is obtained by dividing the total 243 seats of the Bihar Assembly by (5+1). According to this math, NDA has a total of 193 MLAs. It is clear that BJP and JDU can easily win two seats each. The real problem lies in the fifth seat. BJP has 89 MPs, JDU has 85 MPs, LJP(R) has 19 MPs Nitin Nabin: Flight from Patna to Delhi The most discussed name is Nitin Nabin. It is almost certain that Nitin Nabin, MLA from Bankipur, Patna, former minister and recently became the national working president of BJP, will go to Rajya Sabha. Interestingly, he resigned from the post of minister just two days after becoming the National Working President. In political circles, this is seen as a clear indication that the party now wants to establish itself in central politics instead of state politics. If BJP insiders are to be believed, it has been the tradition of the party that the leader holding the top post at the national level should be an MP. In such a situation Nitin Nabin will be prepared for bigger responsibilities in future by first sending him to Rajya Sabha. The party has already adopted this strategy with many leaders. Will Pawan Singh get a ‘big reward’? Along with the Rajya Sabha elections, another name is in the news, Bhojpuri superstar Pawan Singh. The relationship between BJP and Pawan Singh definitely soured in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, but before the 2025 Assembly elections, he returned to the party and campaigned strongly. There is a discussion within the party that Pawan Singh may be given a bigger role in the organization or the House. Senior MP Manoj Tiwari’s statement – ‘All is certain for Pawan Singh’ adds further fuel to this discussion. However, both the party and Pawan Singh are yet to open their cards. JDU Quota Seats: Trust vs Tradition The question for JDU is a bit tough. The two party leaders whose tenure ends are both very close to Nitish Kumar and senior faces of the party. JDU has already sent him to Rajya Sabha twice. Nitish Kumar usually does not send any leader to Rajya Sabha more than twice, but considering the position and influence of these two, the possibility of a repeat cannot be ruled out. Harivansh Narayan Singh (Rajya Sabha Vice Chairman) Ramnath Thakur (Union Minister) Kushwaha’s farewell fixed? Upendra Kushwaha is currently seen in his weakest position. His party has only 4 MLAs, which is insufficient to win the Rajya Sabha. Even within the NDA there is a clear indication that he will not get a second chance. Defeat to Karakat in Lok Sabha Election 2024, then the promise of Legislative Council remaining unfulfilled and later damage control by sending him to Rajya Sabha, all this became the story of Kushwaha’s political journey. Now after the election of the assembly he launched his son by making him a minister. In such a situation, to avoid BJP being accused of nepotism, it is considered almost certain to oust Kushwaha from the Rajya Sabha. Chirag Paswan’s biggest test: The biggest tension is over Chirag Paswan on the fifth seat of Rajya Sabha. His party LJP(R) has 19 MPs. To win a seat he needs the support of 22 more MLAs. After shedding four seats, NDA remains with 38 MLAs ie 3 MLAs short of victory. It is difficult to win this seat without cross-voting or making a dent in the opposition. Chirag has long been demanding a Rajya Sabha seat for his mother, Reena Paswan. If this demand is accepted, he will not only have to convince his NDA allies but also break support from the opposition. This will be the real political test of Chirag. Cabinet expansion vs. Rajya Sabha seat: After Kharmas, there is talk of cabinet expansion in Bihar as well. In terms of the number of MPs, LJP(R) is the third contender for the ministerial post. It is also being said internally that if Chirag puts more emphasis on the Rajya Sabha seat, his bargaining power in the cabinet may become weak. However, Chirag has publicly said that he got more than what he asked for in the alliance. Last chance for the opposition? If all the opposition LPGs unite, they have exactly 41 MPs, i.e. only one seat. RJD has 25 MLAs, Congress 6, Left 3, AIMIM 5 and BSP and IIP 1 each. In this context, Tejashwi Yadav’s leadership is also being tested. If they want, they can unite the grand alliance and send any RJD leader to the Rajya Sabha. Can. But the question is whether this unit will be visible on the ground? Grand alliance wiped out by 2030? Political analysts believe that the Grand Alliance could be almost wiped out from Bihar in the Rajya Sabha by 2030, given its current numerical strength. This Rajya Sabha election from Bihar is not only about five seats but is indicative of change of leadership, strength of alliance and future politics. Nitin Nabin’s move to Delhi seems certain, Kushwaha’s departure is almost certain, while for Chirag Paswan this election could be the biggest test of his political career. Now it remains to be seen who wins and who loses in political chess in April 2026.