Sheinbaum’s barriers are widely seen as a concession to Trump’s agenda. (AFP) Summary Mexico’s acceptance of 50% tariffs looks less like regular economic protectionism and more like preemptive compliance. As Trump’s trade war turns into a global conflict, Claudia Sheinbaum looks ready to build his wall—with tariffs. When the Mexican Senate voted last week to approve a 50% tariff on a range of countries — China, India, Brazil, South Korea, Vietnam and Taiwan among them — politicians from President Claudia Sheinbaum’s ruling Morena party pretended they were doing it for their own reasons. However, no one in Asia believes that this is a bold declaration of economic independence. Rather, it is seen as the opening of a new and unexpected front in Donald Trump’s trade war against the world. The vote waived the senators’ usual right to discuss amendments in committees and it passed 76-5; the opposition abstained. Officials largely delivered the usual lines that come with measures that cut off trade: That they would protect domestic industry, that revenues would increase by nearly $3 billion, that there would be more money to spend supporting the unemployed. But the real reason is that Sheinbaum is spooked by the deadline, now six months away, for revising the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The speed with which she pushed through the legislation and its timing are no coincidence: Trump said earlier this month that he might let NAFTA’s successor expire or “maybe work out another deal” that ensures the U.S. isn’t “taken advantage of.” No one wants to open that can of worms again. About 80% of Mexico’s exports cross its northern border and more than 80% of these are tariff-free under the USMCA. The country depends on US markets for 30% or so of its output. Mexican politicians are clearly scared enough that even acts of economic self-harm, like 50% tariffs, seem worth trying. For the countries affected by the new tariffs from Mexico City, it’s a sobering reminder that they have more than just the US president to deal with. Trade is a complex, diverse business, which is why we have multilateral arrangements such as the World Trade Organization. For much of 2025, we could pretend that wasn’t the case, with everyone scrambling to make their own bilateral deal with the US. But Sheinbaum shows that the trade conflicts Trump has launched are an ongoing war, not a controlled confrontation. Some will be hit particularly hard. One of the few industries in India that has carved out a successful export niche for itself is auto components. New tariffs could make them uncompetitive inputs for the giant factories along the US border that serve America’s insatiable appetite for cars. But a significant portion of Indian exports to Mexico do not go through the US at all. It is consistently among the top three or four destinations in the world for small, fuel-efficient cars, for example. It’s not meant for Americans, but they’ve been hit with tariffs anyway. Sheinbaum pays Trump protection money, but she takes it out of the pockets of Indian producers. And of course from her own citizens. Opposition lawmakers pointed out that official modelers had given up trying to estimate the effects of such a drastic change to Mexican trade policy. Citgroup’s economists believe this will keep domestic inflation above 4% next year. All the other downstream (and predictable) consequences of tariffs will apply: loss of competitive advantage, factories facing supply shortages, retaliation in fields where you least expect it. And what happens if Trump decides he doesn’t care about such expensive professions of loyalty and shuts down the USMCA anyway? Mexico City will have to rebuild trade relations with the rest of the world from scratch, but capitals from Brasília to Beijing may not be particularly warm at that point. Many Asian countries had hoped that the America-first trade policy — even if disruptive — could eventually form a united front against Chinese dominance of manufacturing. Sheinbaum’s surrender shows us another path. In this alternate world, some countries would quietly enact the US president’s policies for him. The other, perhaps with China at the forefront, will find a multilateral path to isolate collaborators. Countries across Asia and beyond now know that it is not just their relationship with the US that is under threat, but with several other nations as Trump tries to push everyone into his dream world of high tariffs. For example, he has already asked the European Union to impose 100% tariffs on China and India. It is unlikely to agree. Some countries will erect high and unpredictable trade barriers against each other and the world, while the rest will seek security and prosperity by integrating faster and further. Sheinbaum may have chosen the wrong side. In his first term, Trump promised to make Mexico pay for his wall. Now, in his second term, he has succeeded. So what if this new wall is one of rates and not bricks? ©Bloomberg The author is a Bloomberg opinion columnist.
