How will history judge Nawaz?
 

https://www.thenews.com.pk/assets/up...0908_print.jpg Irrespective of the final outcome of trial against the three-time prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, it is now more than clear that he has taken the superior judiciary head-on in what looks like a last ditch effort to rescue his sinking political titanic.

With a strong worded detailed judgment of the Supreme Court on his review petition, which was earlier dismissed, Sharif himself termed it as biased and now has six months to ensure his acquittal from the accountability court or prepare himself for an unfavourable verdict. During all this period, he intends to go to the people in his defence. He has time from November to April to play his cards to win or lose the game.

It would have been much easier for him to fight a political and legal battle, if his political opponents would have been in power. But here, the case is different and Sharif and his daughter and daughter-in-law are the accused in his own government. He would have been facing a much tough treatment had it been any anti-PML government in place in Islamabad. Thus, he is getting a protocol/security and other facilities as well.

His disqualification to contest elections is now final, meaning he will not be in the run for 2018 elections, but whether he will be able to lead the campaign for the party also depends on the accountability court outcome.

Acquittal from here would be a huge bonus for his politics, while conviction would mean that his brother Shahbaz Sharif would lead the party.

Sharif on Tuesday rejected the Supreme Court verdict and believes that history would not accept it just like the many decisions in the last 70 years. He looked very critical to the role of the judiciary against him, but so far not has been able to convince as why this judiciary went against him. Is it not the same judiciary which after independence had given verdict which was termed by Sharif himself as historic, whether it is the disqualification of Yusuf Raza Gillani or submitting a petition in Memogate?

Sharif's daughter Maryam Nawaz fears that judiciary has given verdict under pressure, but both of them have been able to explain how?

Whether history will give its verdict in favour of Sharif or term him as a leader who missed opportunities, he still has two chances to prove otherwise: firstly, get acquitted from NAB references through a strong legal team, and, secondly, ensure that his party wins the next elections. If he loses both, I doubt he would be able to rescue the titanic.

History has its own way of giving verdict and in Sharif's case it is still too early as the PML-N leader has some time. But when history gives the verdict in favour of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto after his execution, even his worst political opponents today believe that it was a judicial murder. It is one of the rare judgments which had not been quoted in murder cases and generally everyone believes it was a judicial murder.

In Bhutto's case, the trial was conducted by PCO judges and one of the worst martial laws was in place. His party was practically banned with thousands of PPP workers and top leadership in jail.

It was the rare murder case which was directly heard by the Lahore High Court, and one of the Supreme Court bench judges almost 15 years later confessed that he was under pressure to award death sentence.

This reference of ZAB case was important because it has been often referred, beside some others, by the PML-N leaders. PPP's back-to-back victory in the elections and the conspiracies to block or rescue its victory and the dismissal of governments also proved that the people's verdict rejected the court verdict.

Here, it is a different case all together. It has all happened in the PML-N government and Sharif was the sitting prime minister. It did not come as a result of any conspiracy or at least something, no one knows. Apparently, it was the fallout of the Panama Leaks and the PML-N’s poor handling of the situation.

Parliament was well placed with the PML-N in majority and even the opposition except the PTI was not hostile. In fact, the opposition even requested Sharif to accept the parliamentary commission, but he decided to refer his case to theSupreme Court.

Whatever Bhutto, his daughter Benazir Bhutto or her spouse Asif Ali Zardari faced in the court were during the government of their opponents and thus had justification of saying it as political victimisation.

On the contrary, Sharif's case was heard by the Supreme Court which is independent and the one who got this independence as a result of struggle in which Sharif had a key role. It is also the same judiciary whose decisions were appreciated by the former PM and he himself went to the court against his political opponents.

Yes, he has a right to say that he has not been given fair trial and the JIT was biased and could come out with some other explanations. But the fact remains that he has yet to convince either about the merit of the case against him and secondly why these judges were biased against him.

Thus, when the history will give its verdict on the Supreme Court verdict or the conducted of judiciary, it can only give it in favour of Sharif, if at any stage it is proven that either judges were under pressure or he could not have been disqualified on the basis on which he has been. The 2018 elections’ results can also vindicate Sharif's claim by given electoral verdict in favour of PML-N.

Sharif still has time to prove the judiciary wrong, one by getting relief in the NAB references and by ensuring victory for the PML-N victory. Anything short of it would sink his political titanic. If Sharif could not recover from this no-win situation and faced conviction after disqualification, it would be very difficult for him to produce election victory for his party from jail.

Political history will judge Sharif as someone who was imposed by the establishment led by Gen Ziaul Haq to counter the PPP. But with the passage of time he not converted the PML into PML-N, also started challenging the establishment and never had comfortable relationship with successive army chiefs during his tenure.

He was used by the establishment to dislodge the PPP and to reduce its popularity in 1998. From Midnight Jackal to Mehran Bank, his role remained controversial and it was only after his second dismissal and long military rule that the two main political opponents joined hands and signed the historic Charter of Democracy in 2006.

Assassination of Benazir Bhutto shocked Sharif who was the first leader to reach the hospital in Rawalpindi. In the post-BB era, Sharif and former Asif Ali Zardari could not go along well and the PPP blamed Sharif for conspiring against the PPP and using the Supreme Court under former chief justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry.

Yet for the first time in political history, we saw smooth transfer of power when Sharif got elected for the record third time in 2013. He could have used this smooth transfer to set good examples. Initially, he did when he allowed his opponents to form government in KP, the Baloch nationalists (for the first time) in Baluchistan and the PPP in Sindh.

He failed in tackling the key opposition leader, Imran Khan. Perhaps, Sharif under estimated his popularity and the campaign against rigging in four seats. Had Sharif agreed for re-election on these seats, he could have saved a major political crisis in 2014, the 126-day dharna.

He got a rare opportunity to get the government and the opposition united after the whole Parliament stood with him against any alleged attempt to dismiss him as PM. On the contrary, he first lost the MQM and then the PPP.

Thus by April, 2016 when the Panama hit the headline, Sharif was politically isolated as key opposition parties turned anti-Nawaz. His last missed opportunity was when the opposition leader, Khursheed Shah, advised him to avoid involving the Supreme Court and present himself before the Parliament.

Today, he is not only down but also out, as far as electoral politics is concerned. But his political defiance against superior judiciary is still on test as he tries to convince his supporters that he did not get fair trial. How the people will react in the next elections, we have to wait.

With practically losing all options for his political comeback, the only choice left for him is to see victory for his party in the elections and register his name in political history of Pakistan.

If history validates the Supreme Court verdict and its goes as the landmark decision against the rich and powerful and referred in the judgements of cases of such nature in future, Sharif may find it difficult to place his name as someone who was deprived fair trial. Secondly, if his party also fails in retaining its position in the next general elections, he would also lose the political ground.

However, if Sharif managed and saw his party victorious in the next polls and again form the government in the Centre and Punjab, he may portray it as his answer to the opponents and also to the judiciary.

His entry into politics was accidental and not by choice. It was the choice of the than establishment of Gen Ziaul Haq who needed someone from Punjab to counter the PPP. Today, he is facing political exit and that too during his own government.

As one of his aides once told me, “Mian Sharif was told that through politics he could also protect his business (in reference to Bhutto's nationalisation)." His son and a three-time PM is finding it difficult to protect both politics and business. Can he defeat the history and create a new history?

The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of GEO, The News and Jang.

Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO

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