Imran on ?solo flight? again
 

Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf Chairman Imran Khan is on a 'solo flight' once again, this time to Raiwind, may be before a final call for Pakistan march to Islamabad. He is confident of putting e**ugh pressure on Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif over Panama papers that either he would accept his demands or would be forced to quit. Can his 'solo' journey bear results in opposition's favour or will it fizzle out?

What is government strategy to counter it? Will it be through political means or administrative? Its ministers are already creating the hype, which can prove counterproductive. The PM who is in the US would stay back in London but is expected to return to face the PTI march. Will he be in Islamabad, Murree or at his Raiwind residence on September 30? Traditionally, government's overreaction often helps the opposition in playing with the media.

Although Imran has given the call for September 30 public meeting, the program he has an**unced from September 24th to 30th, indicates that there will be a lot of political activities from this week.

PTI sources said Imran's decision to go solo has been taken in the light of somewhat suspicious response from other opposition parties like PPP, PML-Q and Qadri's mysterious "Qisas Tehreek," also forced him to go all-out against the government.

While there is ** chance of any direct contact between government and the PTI, will Sharif try to engage other opposition parties and, above all, do they have anything to offer over Panama papers inquiry which may be acceptable to the opposition.

As situation stands today, perhaps both want to see the show of strength of Imran between 24th to 30th of September. This is **t the first time that he has taken a solo flight, and there is also **thing wrong in it, if a leader is so confident that he could take the country by storm, the kind of confidence we had seen in Zulfikar Ali Bhutto who always went solo. But Imran is certainly **t Bhutto **r had that kind of charisma, at least, **t after 2014.

He has taken a big risk as even his most trusted ally, veteran Sheikh Rasheed Ahmad, also criticized some of his tactical move as politically immature. But, through his solo flight, he earned the position as the only political rival of Nawaz Sharif. He took the first solo flight after July 2013 against the alleged rigging in four NA constituencies and brought out rallies in Punjab followed by mini-strike in Karachi. By 2014, Imran generated e**ugh mobilization that he gave the call for Islamabad March.

Later, Tahirul Qadri, whose Pakistan Awami Tehreek, kept itself away from elections also launched the movement in the name of changing the whole system. During 126-days dharna, Imran-Qadri managed to put all activities and government functions to halt to the extent that even the visit of Chinese president had been postponed.

In 2014, after attack on Parliament and PTV, Imran-Qadri managed to put e**ugh pressure on the government that Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif made an appeal to army chief Gen Raheel Sharif to intervene in ending the stand-off. Although the appeal caused a lot of political embarrassment for the government, parliament stands behind the government. The crisis ended after an agreement over judicial commission whose final verdict disappointed Imran but he accepted the decision.

This time although Imran, still on a solo flight but the government too, is isolated unlike in 2014. Sharif after name of his children appeared in Panama leaks mishandled the situation and allowed the opposition join hand. Despite his two addresses to the nation, on the same issue in a bid to defend his case, the government sent a controversial reference to the Supreme Court which, as expected, returned the same with certain observations.

Imran and the PTI missed this opportunity when instead of forming a joint alliance of the opposition, it once again decided to go solo. This gave e**ugh opportunity to the Sharifs and PML-N to dilute the situation and though the PM fails in getting direct support of the PPP, it managed to keep the opposition divided over launching a countrywide movement.

After few attempts from PTI and PAT, Qadri in particular decided to call off the protest and went abroad after developing differences with Imran over Raiwind march. Some sources indicate that he got the message that ' ** change' is in the offing.

Imran, k**wn in his cricking days as a fighter, finally decided to go ahead solo, irrespective of the outcome. So what Imran and PTI intend to achieve from Raiwind march and what will be his next move, depend on his party's activities in the next 10-days and government response or PML's overreaction.

Like in 2014, Will he again demand PM's resignation at September 30 rally or an**unce his resignations of his party's legislatures from National Assembly, Senate and provincial assemblies, in case, he decided to go all- out against the government. In 2014, while PTI had resigned from NA, he could **t convince his Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa party to dissolve KP Assembly or quit.

It all depends on how many people Imran would be able to attract on September 30th. It will also be a test of his popularity, after some disappointing performances of PTI in the last few weeks including in Karachi's Nishtar Park on September 6. But the kind of mobilization he has an**unced and also intends to address some corner meetings, he is confident about holding a successful show next week.

His game plan includes increasing pressure **t only on government, PML-N and Sharif brothers, but also on Election Commission which will be hearing opposition petition for disqualification of the PM, as well as disqualification of Imran, too. His soft criticism on the Supreme Court could also be an attempt to get favorable decision on PTI's appeal after SC registrar returned the petition with remarks like **n-serious.

His verbal attack on NAB, FBR, Pemra, on some media houses and journalists in his typical tone also reminded of 2014 dharna. Such remarks often lead to violence as happened two years back, when Geo in particular and those associated with the channel came under attack.

His tone was also aggressive against Punjab police and passed a strong warning to police. Imran also k**ws that he has taken a risk, and failure here would badly damage his chances in next general elections, but if he managed a big show on September 30th, it will **t put government under immense pressure but would also be able to bring all opposition at one platform.

However, opposition parties like PPP believe that Imran's solo flight could also prove counterproductive and violence between September 24 to 30 in large scale could worsen the law and order situation, just before Muharram.

Imran's tone was **t only aggressive but also he did **t rule out clash in case Punjab police or PML-N Gullu Butt used muscle force. Thus, he has given clear instructions to his Insaf force to take on anyone who tried to stop rallies from coming to Raiwind.

Imran's strategy seems to create massive political activities particularly in the Punjab from September 24th during which PTI intends to hold corner meetings, funds collection campaign, build media hype for September 30 rally at Raiwind.

Thus, for about a week before his 'solo flight' finally lands in Raiwind, a few kilometers from Sharif's residence, the PTI and IK intend to draw country's attention towards its decisive rally. Politically speaking, its smart move of IK and PTI, at a time when other opposition parties are **t ready to join hands with him, some may send their representatives, Pakistan Awami Tehreek made a silent exit and party's internal conflicts have sharpened.

There is also **thing wrong in going solo for two reasons. In the past Zulfikar Bhutto always went solo, even when his popularity was done in 1977 and could win the elections even without rigging. Therefore, solo flight often generates more enthusiasm among your own party workers and secondly, it is easy to manage.

However, there is a big risk also, in case the Raiwind march fails. PTI and Imran will **t only face criticism from PML-N or government but more importantly from the opposition parties also.

PTI chairman's expectations may be too high about the crowd, he is expecting something close to October 2011 at Minar-e-Pakistan, which gave him the real boost, but he has already set a tone for the next elections, whether held in 2018 or early, it will be one-on-one, Sharif vs Imran and PML-N vs PTI.

Parties like Jamaat-e-Islami can join him, sensing the mood but for parties like PPP and ANP, the changing scenario is **t very different from 2013, which can push some more PPP leaders to join PTI or PML-N.

The writer is the senior columnist and analyst of GEO, The News and Jang.



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