PML-N?s last fiscal: Govt cuts GDP growth from 5.8pc to 5.2pc for 2017-18

[ahlam1399]

ISLAMABAD: The PTI-led government on Friday slashed the real GDP growth rate from 5.8 percent to 5.2 percent for the last financial year 2017-18 under the tenure of PML-N-led government on the pretext of receiving the full year data of Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) and other sectors of the economy showing declining trends.This downward revision of the GDP growth rate will have far-reaching impact on the overall economic front as the size of the economy will be shrunk subsequently thus the budget deficit figure is expected to be increased from 6.6 percent of GDP. The current account deficit would also go up in percentage of GDP for the last financial year 2017-18 that ended on June 30, 2018.When concerned officials were contacted for seeking comments, they argued that the previous PML-N led regime had used the data of just eight months to calculate the GDP growth rate on provisional basis and took the LSM growth rate at 6.13 percent. However, the LSM growth decreased to 5.1 percent, so it would have a negative impact on the overall GDP growth rate. At the time of estimating the GDP growth rate at 5.8 percent, the National Accounts Committee (NAC) had used the allocated amount for Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) at Rs2 trillion but the actual utilisation declined significantly, so it also impacted the construction sector negatively.In the agriculture sector, the minor crops got improved while the wheat crop declined from 25.6 million tons to 25 million tons in actual figures. The Secretary Statistics Division, Shaista Sohail, took the decision to convene the second meeting of National Accounts Committee (NAC) and revised downward the GDP growth figures with the approval of the committee. The NAC has been convening its meetings since 1968, so the government took the stance that two meetings of NAC were not unusual happening, keeping in view the track record of the forum.According to the official statement issued by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Friday night, the 100th meeting of the National Accounts Committee to review the final and revised estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the years 2016-17 and 2017-18 respectively was held on Friday in the Conference Room of Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). The secretary Statistics Division chaired the meeting.The provisional GDP estimates for the year 2017-18 and revised GDP estimates for the year 2016-17 presented in the 99th meeting of the NAC have been updated on the basis of the latest available data. The special meeting of the NAC was called to meet the requirement of the Ministry of Planning, Development & Reform for revised GDP data for the year 2017-18 to provide them a baseline to work on the 12th Five Year Plan (2018-23). However, the GDP data presented before Friday’s meeting of the NAC is subject to minor change in the next meeting of the NAC.The final growth rate of GDP for the year 2016-17 has been estimated at 5.37 percent, which was 5.38 percent in the revised estimates. The agriculture sector has improved from 2.07 percent to 2.18 percent whereas industrial sector declined from 5.43 percent to 5.20 percent. The final growth rate of services sector stands at 6.52 percent with slight improvement from 6.46 percent. The revised growth rate of GDP for the year 2017-18 is 5.22 percent, which was provisionally estimated at 5.79 percent.Agricultural Sector: The revised growth in the agriculture sector for 2017-18 has been estimated at 3.70 percent, which was provisionally estimated at 3.81 percent. The crops sub sector has improved from 3.83 percent to 4.24 percent whereas livestock has slightly decreased from 3.76 percent to 3.62 percent.Industrial Sector: The revised growth in industrial sector is 5.01 percent which was 5.80 percent in the provisional estimate. Mining & quarrying has improved from provisional growth of 3.04 percent to 3.89 percent whereas LSM, which is based on QIM, has declined from 6.13 percent to 5.01 percent. Electricity has declined from 1.84 percent to 1.15 percent. The revised growth in construction sector stands at 7.07 percent, which was 9.13 percent in the provisional estimates.Services Sector: The growth of services sector has declined from provisional estimates of 6.43 percent to 5.78 percent. The Wholesale & Retail Trade (WRT) has declined from 7.51 percent to 6.40 percent, Transport, Storage and Communication declined to 1.96 percent from provisional growth of 3.58 percent. Finance & Insurance has registered a decline from 6.13 percent to 5.40 percent. The general government services have declined from 11.42 percent to 9.58 percent whereas other private services increased from 6.15 percent to 8.09 percent.http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/com/cwEr/~4/yuyolOwk20Q

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