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06-02-2017, 11:38 AM
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‘From the pollsters’ point of view this is an experimental British election’
LONDON: British Prime Minister Theresa May’s gamble on a snap election was under question on Thursday after the latest opinion polls showed her Conservative Party’s lead was dwindling just a week before voting begins.
Failure to win the June 8 election with a large majority would weaken May just as formal Brexit talks are due to begin while the loss of her majority in parliament would pitch British politics into turmoil.
In the strongest signal yet that the election is much closer than previously thought, May’s lead has collapsed from 24 points since she surprised both rivals and financial markets on April 18 by calling the election.
A YouGov survey showed May’s lead at a fresh low of 3 percentage points with the opposition Labour party polling 39 percent against the Conservatives’ 42 percent.
There was slightly better news for May from a Panelbase poll which put her party 8 points ahead of Labour, but that still meant the Conservatives’ advantage had almost halved in a week.
Meanwhile a separate YouGov model based on different data estimated the Conservatives would win 317 seats, nine short of an overall majority of 326 seats.
In a hectic campaign which was suspended after a suicide bombing last week, pollsters, who universally got it wrong before the last vote in 2015, have offered a vast range for the result of the election: From May losing her majority to a landslide victory for her Conservatives of more than 100 seats.
"From the pollsters’ point of view this is an experimental election.
We all got it wrong in 2015 and we are all trying different methods to get it right this year," said Anthony Wells, a research director at YouGov.
Betting that she would win a strong majority, May called the snap election to strengthen her position at home as she embarked on complicated Brexit negotiations with 27 other members of the European Union.
But if she fails to beat the 12-seat majority her predecessor David Cameron won in 2015, her electoral gamble will have failed and her authority will be seriously undermined.
If May failed to win an overall majority, she would be forced to strike a deal with a**ther party to continue governing either as a coalition or a mi**rity government.
That would have uncertain consequences for Britain’s $2.5 trillion eco**my, and future government policy on everything from government spending and corporate taxation to bond issuance.
Sterling weakened against the dollar late Wednesday after the YouGov poll but was trading at $1.2857 on Thursday, about 3 cents above where it was trading at the start of the campaign.
The FTSE posted its best month of the year, helped by a weaker pound. YouGov said May was still the most favoured choice for prime minister, though her 43 percent rating is the lowest it has ever been. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is on his highest ever rating of 30 percent.
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‘From the pollsters’ point of view this is an experimental British election’
LONDON: British Prime Minister Theresa May’s gamble on a snap election was under question on Thursday after the latest opinion polls showed her Conservative Party’s lead was dwindling just a week before voting begins.
Failure to win the June 8 election with a large majority would weaken May just as formal Brexit talks are due to begin while the loss of her majority in parliament would pitch British politics into turmoil.
In the strongest signal yet that the election is much closer than previously thought, May’s lead has collapsed from 24 points since she surprised both rivals and financial markets on April 18 by calling the election.
A YouGov survey showed May’s lead at a fresh low of 3 percentage points with the opposition Labour party polling 39 percent against the Conservatives’ 42 percent.
There was slightly better news for May from a Panelbase poll which put her party 8 points ahead of Labour, but that still meant the Conservatives’ advantage had almost halved in a week.
Meanwhile a separate YouGov model based on different data estimated the Conservatives would win 317 seats, nine short of an overall majority of 326 seats.
In a hectic campaign which was suspended after a suicide bombing last week, pollsters, who universally got it wrong before the last vote in 2015, have offered a vast range for the result of the election: From May losing her majority to a landslide victory for her Conservatives of more than 100 seats.
"From the pollsters’ point of view this is an experimental election.
We all got it wrong in 2015 and we are all trying different methods to get it right this year," said Anthony Wells, a research director at YouGov.
Betting that she would win a strong majority, May called the snap election to strengthen her position at home as she embarked on complicated Brexit negotiations with 27 other members of the European Union.
But if she fails to beat the 12-seat majority her predecessor David Cameron won in 2015, her electoral gamble will have failed and her authority will be seriously undermined.
If May failed to win an overall majority, she would be forced to strike a deal with a**ther party to continue governing either as a coalition or a mi**rity government.
That would have uncertain consequences for Britain’s $2.5 trillion eco**my, and future government policy on everything from government spending and corporate taxation to bond issuance.
Sterling weakened against the dollar late Wednesday after the YouGov poll but was trading at $1.2857 on Thursday, about 3 cents above where it was trading at the start of the campaign.
The FTSE posted its best month of the year, helped by a weaker pound. YouGov said May was still the most favoured choice for prime minister, though her 43 percent rating is the lowest it has ever been. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is on his highest ever rating of 30 percent.
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