ahlam1399
08-06-2016, 05:01 AM
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Chairman Imran Khan's an**uncement of launching a movement against Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif over Panama Papers is a political gamble which, if lost, would spoil his chances in the next general elections.
It’s a gamble for being a solo flight with a belief that other opposition parties would join in later. The PML-N strategy to counter Imran’s move is equally important and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has already instructed his party leaders to this effect. Shall all this cause a political turmoil and shall government succeed in foiling it which is being termed as “dharna part II”?
Imran has planned a rally from his strong constituency in Peshawar to Attock on Sunday followed by a rally from Rawalpindi to Islamabad on August 13 and “dharna” in Lahore for which he will an**unce the final date during his second rally.
Meanwhile, the newly-completed Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) faces the first and big test over the references for disqualification of PM Nawaz, Imran and Jehangir Tareen. The ECP was completed with the government-opposition consensus. Thus its decision would be morally binding on all parties, though it was surprising to see Imran’s reservation over the ECP as his own party endorsed its composition.
However, by the time the ECP takes up these references from August 17, Imran's PTI and Dr Tahir ul Qadri's PAT and Sheikh Rasheed’s one-man party, Awami Muslim League, would be on the streets and political temperature would rise. But why is it a political gamble of Imran? It is because of his solo flight and disorder in his own house. Apparently, Imran tried to underplay his protest plan and solo flight by claiming it’s **t a protest movement but an "awami rabita" (mass contact) campaign. Actually he has plan to get atop a**ther container and start a**ther dharna, but this time in Lahore.
It’s a gamble because if other opposition parties, particularly the PPP and Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), did **t join Imran, it would be quite difficult for PTI and PAT to do more than what they did in 2014. Both PTI and PAT have apparently **t calculated the time factor — Eid falling in September and Ashura in October.
Imran would be anxiously waiting for the PPP's next move. The party high command will seek instructions from former president Asif Ali Zardari. PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto has already gone to Dubai for this purpose. PPP sources say it all depends on how PML-N and Nawaz Sharif respond and engage the opposition and come out with a compromise formula over Panama Papers.
It’s a political gamble for Imran on a**ther count also. Imran has also hinted at moving the Supreme Court and has also agreed to join the meeting of the committee on Terms of Reference (TORs) with the government. It’s going to be a do or die situation for the PTI if it loses case in the SC as defeat at the highest court would also mean end of the movement as all parties are bound to accept its final verdict.
Imran has gone into a gamble as he k**ws that success in this campaign would brighten his chances in the next general elections which, he thinks, could be held before 2018. Therefore, he want to go all out without realizing that early elections do **t suit his party which is in complete disarray because of internal discord.
It is also true Imran k**ws that if he fails to convert his campaign into a mass agitation, he would be in a very difficult position, yet he has chosen to gamble “armed” with a divided PTI. It would have been better had waited till the final decision of the joint opposition as that could have exerted extra pressure on the government. Meanwhile, Imran could have gone for party elections which would been the ideal time for launching the movement. However, given the present situation, elections in the PTI before the next general elections appear a remote possibility and Imran is **t ready to take that risk.
Government's own blunders may aggravate the situation and create a political turmoil, but where will Imran and his party stand in case it resulted in any extra-constitutional action. Early elections do **t even favour other mainstream parties like PPP, which has just changed its chief minister in Sindh in a bid to change party's perception and set some good examples of good governance. PPP also aims at making inroads in Punjab for which they need a few years.
If early elections suit any party at this stage, it is perhaps the ruling PML-N where its position is more or less intact in Punjab and the recent victory in Azad Kashmir has also given it an edge.
Imran can get a big political boost if PPP also joins his movement at same stage and a grand alliance like Pakistan National Alliance of 1977 is formed, which ended up in martial law. Due to party's internal problems, he has decided to lead the movement from Peshawar where his party is in a relatively better position despite strong reservations of some party MNA and MPAs against Chief Minister Pervez Khattack.
Thus, it’s a big political gamble for Imran and also a test of Prime Minister Nawaz before the next general elections, on time or before 2018. It’s a gamble of a leader who k**ws that its perhaps his last chance to defeat his main political rival and strong man from Punjab.
It’s a battle of nerves between aging Imran and ailing Nawaz. While it’s Nawaz's third term as PM and test for him to complete his first full term, it’s also going to be a test of Imran’s ability to lead the party to some kind of victory, failing which would also mean pressure on him to quit as captain after back to back defeats. (The writer is the senior columnist and analyst of GEO, The News and jang)
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It’s a gamble for being a solo flight with a belief that other opposition parties would join in later. The PML-N strategy to counter Imran’s move is equally important and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has already instructed his party leaders to this effect. Shall all this cause a political turmoil and shall government succeed in foiling it which is being termed as “dharna part II”?
Imran has planned a rally from his strong constituency in Peshawar to Attock on Sunday followed by a rally from Rawalpindi to Islamabad on August 13 and “dharna” in Lahore for which he will an**unce the final date during his second rally.
Meanwhile, the newly-completed Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) faces the first and big test over the references for disqualification of PM Nawaz, Imran and Jehangir Tareen. The ECP was completed with the government-opposition consensus. Thus its decision would be morally binding on all parties, though it was surprising to see Imran’s reservation over the ECP as his own party endorsed its composition.
However, by the time the ECP takes up these references from August 17, Imran's PTI and Dr Tahir ul Qadri's PAT and Sheikh Rasheed’s one-man party, Awami Muslim League, would be on the streets and political temperature would rise. But why is it a political gamble of Imran? It is because of his solo flight and disorder in his own house. Apparently, Imran tried to underplay his protest plan and solo flight by claiming it’s **t a protest movement but an "awami rabita" (mass contact) campaign. Actually he has plan to get atop a**ther container and start a**ther dharna, but this time in Lahore.
It’s a gamble because if other opposition parties, particularly the PPP and Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), did **t join Imran, it would be quite difficult for PTI and PAT to do more than what they did in 2014. Both PTI and PAT have apparently **t calculated the time factor — Eid falling in September and Ashura in October.
Imran would be anxiously waiting for the PPP's next move. The party high command will seek instructions from former president Asif Ali Zardari. PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto has already gone to Dubai for this purpose. PPP sources say it all depends on how PML-N and Nawaz Sharif respond and engage the opposition and come out with a compromise formula over Panama Papers.
It’s a political gamble for Imran on a**ther count also. Imran has also hinted at moving the Supreme Court and has also agreed to join the meeting of the committee on Terms of Reference (TORs) with the government. It’s going to be a do or die situation for the PTI if it loses case in the SC as defeat at the highest court would also mean end of the movement as all parties are bound to accept its final verdict.
Imran has gone into a gamble as he k**ws that success in this campaign would brighten his chances in the next general elections which, he thinks, could be held before 2018. Therefore, he want to go all out without realizing that early elections do **t suit his party which is in complete disarray because of internal discord.
It is also true Imran k**ws that if he fails to convert his campaign into a mass agitation, he would be in a very difficult position, yet he has chosen to gamble “armed” with a divided PTI. It would have been better had waited till the final decision of the joint opposition as that could have exerted extra pressure on the government. Meanwhile, Imran could have gone for party elections which would been the ideal time for launching the movement. However, given the present situation, elections in the PTI before the next general elections appear a remote possibility and Imran is **t ready to take that risk.
Government's own blunders may aggravate the situation and create a political turmoil, but where will Imran and his party stand in case it resulted in any extra-constitutional action. Early elections do **t even favour other mainstream parties like PPP, which has just changed its chief minister in Sindh in a bid to change party's perception and set some good examples of good governance. PPP also aims at making inroads in Punjab for which they need a few years.
If early elections suit any party at this stage, it is perhaps the ruling PML-N where its position is more or less intact in Punjab and the recent victory in Azad Kashmir has also given it an edge.
Imran can get a big political boost if PPP also joins his movement at same stage and a grand alliance like Pakistan National Alliance of 1977 is formed, which ended up in martial law. Due to party's internal problems, he has decided to lead the movement from Peshawar where his party is in a relatively better position despite strong reservations of some party MNA and MPAs against Chief Minister Pervez Khattack.
Thus, it’s a big political gamble for Imran and also a test of Prime Minister Nawaz before the next general elections, on time or before 2018. It’s a gamble of a leader who k**ws that its perhaps his last chance to defeat his main political rival and strong man from Punjab.
It’s a battle of nerves between aging Imran and ailing Nawaz. While it’s Nawaz's third term as PM and test for him to complete his first full term, it’s also going to be a test of Imran’s ability to lead the party to some kind of victory, failing which would also mean pressure on him to quit as captain after back to back defeats. (The writer is the senior columnist and analyst of GEO, The News and jang)
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/com/YEor/~4/9jlexlIge5M
أكثر... (http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/com/YEor/~3/9jlexlIge5M/140552-Imrans-political-gamble)