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With the 2020 Oscars coming up this weekend, all eyes are on who will win at the Academy Awards \u2014 and what they will wear on the red carpet, of course. In the former world, though, it\u2019s entirely possible to have a good go at predicting just about everything that will happen at the Oscars by using maths and looking into the past.<\/p>\n
Read more: <\/strong>How to watch the Oscars in the UK<\/strong><\/p>\nThe Oscars might be the big beast of cinema awards ceremonies, but they are not the only one. There are famous ceremonies like the BAFTAs and Golden Globes, of course, but there are also numerous smaller awards events, often organised by particular guilds representing jobs within the film industry. This incorporates the Screen Actors Guild Awards, the Producers Guild of America Awards and the Directors Guild of America Awards \u2014 among many, many others. Even the film critics get to have their say via the Critics\u2019 Choice Awards.<\/p>\n
When all of these precursor awards are crunched together, they often create a very clear picture of what is likely to win on the night.<\/p>\n
Best Picture<\/h2>\n\nGeorge MacKay in ‘1917’. (Credit: eOne)<\/p>\n<\/figcaption>More<\/span><\/button><\/div>\n<\/figure>\nNominees: <\/strong>1917, Ford v Ferrari (Le Mans \u201866), The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite<\/em><\/p>\nGoing into this year\u2019s awards season \u2014 several weeks shorter than usual due to an early date for the Oscars ceremony \u2014 there was no runaway favourite. Throughout the month of January, though, Sam Mendes\u2019 First World War thriller 1917<\/em> has emerged as that clear frontrunner. It scored victories at the BAFTAs, Golden Globes, PGA Awards and DGA Awards, hoovering up more precursors than any other title.<\/p>\nThe PGA and DGA wins are particularly useful in prediction as each of their top awards has a 70% record for matching Best Picture over the course of the last 20 years. The DGA\u2019s predicting power had been neutered somewhat in the last six years, with the Academy showcasing a penchant for splitting Best Picture and Best Director. That doesn\u2019t look likely to happen this year though.<\/p>\n
Read more: <\/strong>Biggest Oscar snubs and surprises of 2020<\/strong><\/p>\nIf there\u2019s a fly in the ointment for 1917<\/em>, though, it\u2019s the SAG Awards. The movie was entirely shut out by the guild, which shares a lot of membership with the Academy\u2019s acting contingent \u2014 its largest branch. For years, it was a hard and fast statistical truth that, in order to win an Oscar, a SAG nomination for Best Ensemble was a necessity. However, the last two Best Picture winners \u2014 Green Book<\/em> and The Shape of Water<\/em> \u2014 did so without even landing a spot on the SAG shortlist. That award, this year, was won by the terrific Parasite<\/em>.<\/p>\n\nA still from Bong Joon Ho’s Parasite<\/i>. (Curzon)<\/p>\n<\/figcaption>More<\/span><\/button><\/div>\n<\/figure>\nThe other factor counting in 1917<\/em>\u2019s favour is the preferential ballot used to decide Best Picture. Rather than simply picking one winner \u2014 as they do in every other category \u2014 voters rank the contenders for Best Picture from one to nine. In a similar way to the Alternative Vote electoral system once put to a referendum in the UK, the movie with the lowest number of first place votes is eliminated in each round, with those voters having their second place preferences taken into account, and so on until a film can claim more than 50% of votes.<\/p>\nRead more: <\/strong>Barack Obama reveals favourite 2019 movies<\/strong><\/p>\nThis is a good idea in principle. With a maximum of 10 movies in the category, a movie could conceivably win with just over 10% of the vote on an ordinary ballot. The other side of that double-edged sword, though, is the fact that this system often rewards a movie that\u2019s safe and appeals to everyone, rather than a risk-taker.<\/p>\n
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1917<\/em> feels like a clear consensus choice this year. It\u2019s technically impressive, very well-made and has support from a variety of the guilds \u2014 each theoretically representing a branch of Academy voters. Almost every other movie has some sort of banana skin attached to it, whether it\u2019s the Netflix factor (The Irishman<\/em>, Marriage Story<\/em>), a divisive critical and audience response (Joker<\/em>, OUATIH, Jojo Rabbit<\/em>) or the fact it\u2019s in a foreign language (Parasite<\/em>).<\/p>\nAll of those films will get plenty of first-place votes, but they\u2019ll also turn up at the bottom of many other lists. A movie like 1917<\/em>, which might get as many number two votes as it does number ones, is the clear beneficiary of this system.<\/p>\nPrediction:<\/strong> 1917<\/em><\/p>\nBest Director<\/h2>\n\nSam Mendes poses with the award for Best Director for his work on the film ‘1917’ at the BAFTA British Academy Film Awards. (Photo by ADRIAN DENNIS\/AFP via Getty Images)<\/p>\n<\/figcaption>More<\/span><\/button><\/div>\n<\/figure>\nNominees: <\/strong>Bong Joon-ho (Parasite<\/em>), Sam Mendes (1917<\/em>), Todd Phillips (Joker<\/em>), Martin Scorsese (The Irishman<\/em>), Quentin Tarantino (OUATIH<\/em>),<\/p>\nThe Directors Guild of America is, as previously mentioned, a solid way of predicting the Best Picture winner. It\u2019s even better at predicting Best Director, though, with the two awards only diverging on four occasions in the last 30 years. It hasn\u2019t happened since the 2013 ceremony, at which the Oscars garlanded Ang Lee for Life of Pi<\/em>, having not even nominated DGA winner Ben Affleck for Argo<\/em>, Affleck\u2019s film did, however, win Best Picture and so he probably had very few complaints.<\/p>\nRead more: <\/strong>Most ambitious long takes in history<\/strong><\/p>\nWith that in mind, 2020\u2019s DGA winner Sam Mendes can consider himself in pole position to win his second directing Oscar, after previously winning for American Beauty<\/em>. He has won every other precursor too, scooping the Globe and the BAFTA while sharing the Critics\u2019 Choice Award with Bong Joon-ho for Parasite<\/em>.<\/p>\nThe South Korean movie is the only real alternative in this category based on the precursors and, if the Academy, decides to split Best Picture and Best Director again, it\u2019s likely Bong who will benefit. This year looks pretty sewn up for Mendes though.<\/p>\n
Prediction:<\/strong> Sam Mendes (1917<\/em>)<\/p>\nActing Categories<\/h2>\n\nJoaquin Phoenix, Ren\u00e9e Zellweger, Laura Dern and Brad Pitt are Oscars frontrunners. (Credit: Joel C Ryan\/Invision\/Chris Pizzello\/AP)<\/p>\n<\/figcaption>More<\/span><\/button><\/div>\n<\/figure>\nPerhaps as a side effect of the truncated season, there\u2019s very little intrigue in the acting categories. With the Globes, BAFTAs, SAGs and Critics\u2019 Choice Awards all handing out the same four prizes to the same four winners, there seems to be very little chance of a surprise to rival Olivia Colman\u2019s Best Actress victory last year.<\/p>\n
Read more: <\/strong>Most incredible actor transformations of 2019<\/strong><\/p>\nBased on every possible metric available, the four winners will be the same ones we\u2019ve seen take to countless stages in countless fancy outfits to thank the same crop of people. At least Joaquin Phoenix and Brad Pitt can be relied upon to say something a little unusual in their acceptance speeches.<\/p>\n
Prediction: <\/strong>Joaquin Phoenix (Joker<\/em>), Ren\u00e9e Zellweger (Judy<\/em>), Brad Pitt (OUATIH<\/em>), Laura Dern (Marriage Story<\/em>)<\/p>\nBest Original Screenplay<\/h2>\n\nAna de Armas and Daniel Craig in whodunnit thriller ‘Knives Out’. (Credit: Lionsgate)<\/p>\n<\/figcaption>More<\/span><\/button><\/div>\n<\/figure>\nNominees: <\/strong>1917, Knives Out, Marriage Story, OUATIH, Parasite<\/em><\/p>\nThe screenplay categories are a little harder to call, but there is again a helpful guild we can turn to in the shape of the Writers Guild of America. This year, they gave their Best Original Screenplay prize to Parasite<\/em>, while it was Once Upon a Time in Hollywood<\/em> which emerged victorious at the Golden Globes and also won at the Critics\u2019 Choice Awards. The crucial thing to note, however, is that neither the Globes nor the Critics\u2019 Choice Awards share voting members with the Academy, whereas the writing guild does. However, Tarantino was not eligible for the WGA Awards as he is not a member of the union, opening the door for Parasite<\/em>.<\/p>\nRead more: <\/strong>Bong Joon-ho on whether he\u2019d make a Marvel movie<\/strong><\/p>\nThis one is a difficult category to call, but Quentin Tarantino\u2019s LA epic has stalled momentum-wise, even in this rather short awards season. With Parasite<\/em> a favourite among many, and unlikely to be rewarded in Best Picture or Best Director, this is likely to be where it gets love. Original Screenplay is often a category which rewards unconventional Oscar season material, from Spike Jonze\u2019s Her <\/em>to Jordan Peele\u2019s Get Out<\/em> in recent years.<\/p>\nIf 1917<\/em> does somehow manage to win, though, it goes from being a good bet for Best Picture to an absolute dead cert. Even the fact it\u2019s nominated is a great sign for Mendes\u2019 film.<\/p>\nPrediction: <\/strong>Parasite<\/em><\/p>\nBest Adapted Screenplay<\/h2>\n\nTaika Waititi plays an imaginary friend version of Adolf Hitler in ‘Jojo Rabbit’. (Credit: Fox)<\/p>\n<\/figcaption>More<\/span><\/button><\/div>\n<\/figure>\nNominees:<\/strong> The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, The Two Popes<\/em><\/p>\nMuch like its bedfellow category, it\u2019s worth taking a look at the WGA Awards when predicting Best Adapted Screenplay. As the Golden Globes merge their screenplay categories and went for OUATIH<\/em>, they\u2019re no use here. The Critics\u2019 Choice Awards opted to give its Adapted Screenplay prize to Little Women<\/em>, while the WGA plumped for Jojo Rabbit<\/em> \u2014 Taika Waititi\u2019s divisive Second World War satire, in which the writer-director himself appears as an imaginary version of Adolf Hitler.<\/p>\nRead more: <\/strong>Waititi discusses limits of comedy<\/strong><\/p>\nLittle Women<\/em> has been given little recognition other than that one nod and so it seems unlikely to make a splash at the Oscars. Jojo Rabbit<\/em>, meanwhile, has constantly hovered near the top of the race and, with that WGA win under its belt, it\u2019s the odds-on favourite.<\/p>\nPrediction: <\/strong>Jojo Rabbit<\/em><\/p>\nBest Animated Feature<\/h2>\n\nA still from Klaus<\/i>. (Netflix)<\/p>\n<\/figcaption>More<\/span><\/button><\/div>\n<\/figure>\nNominees: <\/strong>How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, I Lost My Body, Klaus, Missing Link, Toy Story 4<\/em><\/p>\nAnimation is, historically, the easiest category to predict at the Oscars. The method is simple too, and doesn\u2019t require any geekery involving guilds and spreadsheets. It\u2019s as easy as: is there a Pixar film nominated? The Disney subsidiary has won nine awards from a dozen nominations prior to this year, most recently with Coco<\/em> and Inside Out<\/em>.<\/p>\nRead more: <\/strong>Toy Story 4<\/strong><\/em> sets box office record<\/strong><\/p>\nThis year, however, things are a little more open. Toy Story 4<\/em> was a fun movie, but not one that blew anybody away in the way that Toy Story 3 <\/em>did a decade ago. This leaves the door open for a different winner. Laika\u2019s box office struggler Missing Link<\/em> was the surprise winner at the Golden Globes and Klaus<\/em> won at the BAFTAs.<\/p>\nMost significantly, though, it was the Netflix animation about Christmas which swept the board at the Annie Awards \u2014 voted for by the animation industry. The film won all seven of its categories and, with all of the momentum at its back, looks set to repeat that feat on Oscar night.<\/p>\n
Prediction: <\/strong>Klaus<\/em><\/p>\n
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