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Iraqi factions threatening to oust US troops, officials denouncing American “violations” and fears of a new Gulf war: a US strike has catapulted Iraq back to the tumultuous aftermath of the 2003 invasion.<\/p>\n
The precision drone strike outside Baghdad airport on Friday killed top Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani and his Iraqi right-hand-man, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.<\/p>\n
Within hours, United Nations chief Antonio Guterres urged leaders to exercise restraint.<\/p>\n
“The world cannot afford another war in the Gulf,” he said.<\/p>\n
The US attack was the most dramatic escalation yet in a feared proxy war between Iran and the US on Iraqi soil.<\/p>\n
It also opened the door to fierce criticism of the US, harkening back to the years following the American-led invasion that toppled ex-dictator Saddam Hussein.<\/p>\n
“The narrative of anti-Americanism is coming back,” said Renad Mansour of the London-based Chatham House.<\/p>\n
“America hasn’t done something this aggressive in a while, so it has brought back memories of the American military occupation of Iraq, as well as the same language and discourse,” he told AFP.<\/p>\n
Iraq’s premier, Adel Abdel Mahdi, condemned the strike as a violation of Iraqi sovereignty and of the US military’s mandate in the country.<\/p>\n
Around 5,200 American forces are deployed across Iraq to train and advise local troops targeting the remnants of the Islamic State group.<\/p>\n
Pro-Iran factions had for months been urging parliament to revoke the bilateral agreement allowing US troops in Iraq, and Mansour said the strike could bolster their argument.<\/p>\n
“They tried to use anti-Americanism before but no one really bought it. Now, it feels like they have more ammunition and justification to make anti-Americanism a bigger narrative,” he told AFP.<\/p>\n
– ‘Compulsory solidarity’ –<\/p>\n
Indeed, top officials in the Hashed al-Shaabi, a network of mostly pro-Iran groups incorporated into the state, swiftly began calling for the departure of US forces.<\/p>\n
Leading Hashed member Hadi al-Ameri urged lawmakers “to take a bold decision to oust foreign troops from Iraq, because their presence has become a threat for Iraqis”.<\/p>\n
Firebrand cleric Moqtada Sadr swiftly reactivated his Mahdi Army, the notorious militia that fought US troops after the invasion but which was dissolved nearly a decade ago.<\/p>\n
Qais al-Khazali, a US-sanctioned paramilitary leader, also called on his fighters to “be ready” following the strike.<\/p>\n
And Kataeb Hezbollah, a hardline Hashed faction, predicted that the deadly raid would ring in “the beginning of the end for the US presence in Iraq and the region”.<\/p>\n
Less than a week earlier, the US had killed 25 Kataeb Hezbollah fighters in retaliatory bombings for the death of an American contractor in northern Iraq.<\/p>\n
In response, streams of Hashed supporters laid siege to the US embassy in Baghdad this week.<\/p>\n
Even Iraqi figures known not to back the Hashed, including top Shiite cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani and President Barham Saleh, condemned the strike publicly.<\/p>\n
“Some think today’s hit clips Iran’s wings in Iraq. The opposite is more likely,” wrote Fanar Haddad of Singapore University’s Middle East Centre.<\/p>\n
“Iraqi political classes are likely to align more strongly with Iran due to compulsory solidarity and some indignation,” he said.<\/p>\n
The Iraqi premier said Muhandis — who was deputy head of Hashed and therefore a government official — would be mourned in an official funeral procession on Saturday.<\/p>\n
Iraqi state television reported a further US strike in Baghdad on Saturday morning, targeting a convoy belonging to the Hashed al-Shaabi, but there was no immediate comment from Washington.<\/p>\n
– US ‘neither cares nor matters’ –<\/p>\n
Analyst Nick Heras said targeting the Hashed could have “significant ramifications” for US-Iraqi ties.<\/p>\n
“It means that the United States is engaged in a conflict with a component of the state-sanctioned Iraqi security forces,” he warned.<\/p>\n
Pro-Iran factions “now have a political and government wing, media outlets, money, relations, experience, arms, human resources and a supportive public”, said specialist Hisham al-Hashemi.<\/p>\n
As a result, Washington felt it was “no longer the most powerful actor in Iraq” and sought to regain leverage through the “adventurous policy” of the Soleimani strike, he said.<\/p>\n
Ramzy Mardini of the US Institute of Peace said the crisis may have been caused by a “miscalculation” on both sides, with the US overestimating the threat to its embassy.<\/p>\n