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The season is a quarter of the way through, more or less. Let\u2019s see what, if anything, we\u2019ve learned, what, if anything, we were super wrong about and what, if anything, is happening just like we expected it to happen.<\/p>\n
The American League Playoff Picture<\/strong><\/p>\n If the season ended today, the AL playoff teams would be the Rays, Twins, Astros, Yankees<\/a> and Indians. <\/span>That\u2019s not super unexpected. Sure, the defending World Series champion Red Sox<\/a> are not in that crew, but that seems like a very temporary situation given how hot they\u2019ve been of late. They\u2019re a half a game back of the punchless Indians in the Wild Card and have made up a ton of ground recently.<\/span><\/p>\n While most people picked the Indians to beat the Twins in the Central, the Twins were thought of as a potential contender thanks to Cleveland\u2019s curious decision to willingly downgrade on offense in the offseason. Seeing the Yankees there is a surprise based on all of the early season injuries they\u2019ve had, but they were largely picked as a playoff team. The Rays started off way hotter than many expected but they were a pretty popular Wild Card pick. The Astros leading the West is no surprise.<\/span><\/p>\n Given how things are trending right now, it\u2019s a pretty safe bet that the playoff representatives from the junior circuit are going to be pretty much who we thought they\u2019d be. Which, however much it vindicates prognosticators, says something not terribly flattering about nine or ten of the teams in the A.L. who, quite frankly, never looked all that interested in competing this year.<\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n The National League Playoff Picture\u00a0 \u00a0<\/strong> \u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n In the National League the playoff representatives, if the season ended today, would be the Phillies<\/a>, Cubs, Dodgers<\/a>, Brewers and Cardinals. Probably even less of a surprise than the A.L. The East was thought to be a dogfight, but the Phillies were certainly one of the chosen dogs. The Central could\u2019ve gone with those three teams in any order, but many a pundit thought it quite possible that both Wild Card teams would come from that division. The Diamondbacks\u2019 selloff, the Rockies\u2019 decision not to improve themselves and the Dodgers\u2019 talent and depth made that division a foregone conclusion in the mind of most and, so far anyway, it\u2019s played true to form.<\/p>\n Like the American League, the story of the National League is one of alpha teams and also-rans. It\u2019s great if you\u2019re a fan of an alpha team I suppose, but we\u2019re in an era right now that is far less broadly competitive than any we\u2019ve seen in some time.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n The Free Agents<\/strong><\/p>\n Much of the offseason was spent with . . . very little happening. Most of the big name free agents had to wait a long, long time to sign and two of them \u2014 Dallas Keuchel<\/a> and Craig Kimbrel<\/a> \u2014 still<\/em> haven\u2019t signed. Let\u2019s look at our Hot Stove Top Ten free agents \u2014 not counting Clayton Kershaw<\/a>, who opted-out of his existing deal and quickly re-signed and not counting Keuchel and Kimbrel \u2014 and see how they\u2019re faring:<\/p>\n A mixed bag to be sure. And that mixed bag continues beyond the top 10 free agents. For every nice pickup \u2014 say, Charlie Morton<\/a> or Nelson Cruz<\/a> \u2014 there have been a couple three busts. Perhaps the most notable thing about free agency though was not any individual player\u2019s triumph or struggle as much as there have been teams like the Braves, Indians and Rockies who mostly avoided free agency yet have suffered from clear and expected shortcomings that went unaddressed.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n The Rookies\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n Part of the reason the Hot Stove Season was so slow was that teams are, increasingly, relying on young players, including rookies, to carry a heavier and heavier share of the load. Here are the standout rookies to far in the 2019 season:<\/p>\n In the past couple of weeks a number of other young talents have been called up. This group includes Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Nick Senzel, Keston Hiura, Carter Kieboom, Corbin Martin, Griffin Canning, Nicky Lopez and, as of this morning, Austin Riley. Many of them have already shown why they\u2019re such highly-touted prospects \u2014 witness Vlad Guerrero Jr.\u2019s Tuesday night<\/a> \u2014 and we can expect some more headlines about these guys as the season progresses.<\/p>\n Say what you want about the state of Major League Baseball right now, but youth is definitely being served. At least after we passed the point where it became impossible for rookies to earn a full year of service time in 2019, of course.<\/p>\n\n
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