start of college basketball conference tournament action<\/a>. While all the major TV conferences still have one more week of regular-season action left, several smaller leagues are about to tip off.<\/p>\nTuesday, the Horizon League gets underway. We know most of you don\u2019t follow this conference at all. That actually helps today! VSiN will provide a quick snapshot of how bettors can get up to speed in any conference before its tournament starts. You can apply today\u2019s discussion to any event coming up in the next two weeks.<\/p>\n
Don\u2019t be satisfied looking only at win-loss records in league play. Sharp bettors have found over the years that conference margin average has better predictive value. You won\u2019t find superior \u201csmall sample\u201d comparisons in any sport to college basketball conference margins because all the teams just played a lot of games against each other.<\/p>\n
You\u2019re probably aware many sports bettors like studying what happened against \u201ccommon opponents.\u201d The 10-team Horizon League just played an 18-game double-round robin schedule. Everyone played everyone else twice. Nobody benefited by playing \u201ca bunch of cupcakes\u201d or was penalized by unfair travel. It\u2019s as clean as you\u2019re going to get. And, 18 games is a large enough sample size to draw meaningful conclusions.<\/p>\n
Wright State and Northern Kentucky tied for first place with 13-5 records. Wright State earned the No. 1 seed in a tie-breaker. But, conference margin averages suggest Northern Kentucky is the stronger side.<\/p>\n
Horizon League Conference margins:<\/strong> Northern Kentucky +9.0, Wright State +6.9, Oakland +3.3, Illinois-Chicago +1.2, IUPUI +0.3, Green Bay -1.3, Youngstown State -2.2, Detroit Mercy -3.1, Milwaukee -6.3, Cleveland State -7.8. (Note the Horizon excludes its two worst finishers to form an eight-team bracket).<\/p>\nAgainst very similar challenges, Northern Kentucky\u2019s average game was a nine-point win, while Wright State\u2019s average game was almost a seven-point win. Reasonable to draw a conclusion that Northern Kentucky is about a bucket better than Wright on a neutral court. Up and down the ledger, margin averages can be used as virtual \u201cpower ratings\u201d which express the \u201cpoint difference\u201d between any two teams.<\/p>\n
Respected computer assessments confirm Northern Kentucky is probably the superior side. The NCAA\u2019s NET ranking and Ken Pomeroy\u2019s rankings at kenpom.com both have the Norse about 20 spots higher on the national ladder.<\/p>\n
After quarterfinals Tuesday (IUPUI at Wright State; Illinois-Chicago at Green Bay) and Wednesday (Detroit Mercy at Northern Kentucky; Youngstown State at Oakland), the Horizon League moves to Detroit for semifinals next Monday and the title tilt Tuesday. Only the tournament winner will be invited to join the 68-team NCAA field.<\/p>\n
To evaluate other conferences, do a web search for \u201cconference only\u201d statistics in your leagues of interest. VSiN will post many \u201cfull-season\u201d tabulations here in Bet Smart just before the highest profile events begin.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
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