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When a fantasy scribe writes a sleeper and bust column, the sleepers usually outnumber the busts. There are several plausible reasons for this \u2014 sleepers are more fun to talk about; sleepers are great for marketing purposes; and sleepers probably won\u2019t create an emotional backlash with readers. As my buddy Mike Salfino<\/a> said many years ago, a lot of roto players don\u2019t want the truth so much, they just want to feel good about their team and their players.<\/p>\n My value picks and sleeper names will have to wait for another day. Today\u2019s assignment is a collection of players to fade, guys I\u2019m unlikely to draft. This is basically the What\u2019s Not In My Wallet trope. I\u2019ve included a lot of big-name players, not because I\u2019m looking to make a splash or stir up controversy, but rather because this list isn\u2019t very helpful to you if I\u2019m kicking dirt on mediocre commodities you didn\u2019t want anyway. Let\u2019s not opt for low-hanging fruit.<\/p>\n [Positional Rankings:\u00a0<\/span>Top 300 Overall<\/a>\u00a0<\/span>|\u00a0<\/span>C<\/a>\u00a0<\/span>|\u00a0<\/span>1B<\/a>\u00a0<\/span>|\u00a0<\/span>2B<\/a>\u00a0<\/span>|\u00a0<\/span>SS<\/a>\u00a0<\/span>|\u00a0<\/span>3B<\/a>\u00a0<\/span>|\u00a0<\/span>OF<\/a>\u00a0<\/span>|\u00a0<\/span>P<\/a>]<\/b><\/p>\n I never say never, but here are 10 players I don\u2019t expect to draft in March. Share your respectful disagreement, and your own personal fades, in the comments below, or on Twitter: @scott_pianowski<\/a>.<\/p>\n This might feel like a cheat answer, since Kershaw is obviously dealing with shoulder issues<\/a> and taking it slow at camp. But his past glory and strong name-brand recognition probably ensures he won\u2019t tumble completely in my drafts, and I refuse to be the Injury Optimist in the room.<\/p>\n When the reputation is this sturdy \u2014 Kershaw already has a Hall of Fame resume \u2014 it\u2019s common to see someone heroically project a strong comeback, usually attached with some cutesy logic like \u201cbut he\u2019s Clayton Kershaw!\u201d But the bus eventually leaves town for just about everyone. Albert Pujols<\/a> hasn\u2019t had a pretty endgame. Hanley Ramirez was dumped from the Red Sox<\/a> last year. Miguel Cabrera<\/a>\u2019s had the blues for his mid-30s seasons. I\u2019ll need a better reason to buy in than \u201chey, this player used to be a god.\u201d<\/p>\n The current ADPs from The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (a 21-league slow dance with concurrent slow drafts; basically the Fish Bowl of baseball) illustrate how market confidence remains strong in Kershaw. He\u2019s still carrying an ADP of 52 in this pool, with a high draft slot of 28. We\u2019re talking about a pitcher who\u2019s already physically compromised, and averaging a modest 162 innings the last three years. That\u2019s not worth one of my premium picks.<\/p>\n Takeaway:<\/strong> Injury Optimist Is Usually Not Your Friend<\/p>\n I\u2019ve always been a fan of Archer, an intelligent player with multiple plus pitches. His occasional announcing work is outstanding. Catch him on the right day, and you\u2019ll wonder when a Cy Young season might pop up.<\/p>\n Alas, Archer has become the poster child for a pitcher who can\u2019t seem to perform to his component stats. His front-door ERA has been higher than his peripheral-suggested ERA in five of the last six seasons; in the other year, it was basically a wash. We can\u2019t concretely explain why Archer can\u2019t seem to put it together, but entering his age-30 season, it\u2019s time to accept that he is what he is.<\/p>\n Does he throw too many strikes? Will he never be able to put the homer issues behind him? Maybe we\u2019ll never get an answer.<\/p>\n [<\/strong>Batter up: Join or create a 2019 Yahoo Fantasy Baseball league for free today<\/strong><\/a>]<\/strong><\/p>\n A full season in Pittsburgh will spark some market interest, not that Archer did much in his first 10 National League starts (4.30 ERA, 1.36 WHIP). Smart fantasy owners can discover useful things when popping the hood on pitching stats, but sometimes you need to accept what\u2019s on the sticker.<\/p>\n Takeaway:<\/strong> Occam\u2019s Razor should be a part of your fantasy process\u2014 the simplest answer is often best.<\/p>\n The three true outcomes dominate baseball these days, and stolen bases are becoming an unquestioned afterthought. With that in mind, many fantasy owners are in a tizzy, wondering how they\u2019ll survive in the rabbit column.<\/p>\n There\u2019s one key point that\u2019s often missed \u2014 if the player pool has fewer playable steals, we can compete in the category through a lower number.<\/p>\n Maybe your first hitter will be a primary stolen-base source \u2014 think Trea Turner. Perhaps you see Adalberto Mondesi<\/a> as viable in the third round, or Jon Villar playable in the fifth round. Maybe you\u2019ll land a bunch of affordable players who can mix pop and speed, the Kevin Pillar<\/a> types. These are all reasonable stolen-base paths for me.<\/p>\nClayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers<\/h2>\n